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FNUS22 KWNS 070958 FWDDY2 DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0457 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN/SRN NV...WRN UT...NWRN AZ... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS CA INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY THU. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME CENTERED OVER NERN NV/NWRN UT BY WED AFTERNOON...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED SWWD TOWARDS THE SRN SIERRAS. IN THE EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DECELERATE AS IT PROGRESSES EWD FROM SRN ONTARIO INTO NEW ENGLAND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS WED MORNING REACHING THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY WED AFTERNOON. ...ERN/SRN NV...WRN UT...NWRN AZ... A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATELY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL ENVELOP MUCH OF THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT BASIN BY WED AFTERNOON. DEEPLY MIXED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL EXIST BETWEEN A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS WRN NV AND RICHER SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CENTERED ALONG THE LONGITUDE OF THE FOUR CORNERS. WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH /WITH AREAS NEAR 30 MPH/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUXTAPOSED WITH RH VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE ERN EXTENT OF LOW RH GIVEN MODERATE SPREAD AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE DEGREE OF MIXING ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME. ...FAR S-CNTRL/SERN PA...SRN NJ...NRN DE...CNTRL MD...ERN WV PANHANDLE...NRN VA...D.C.... MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING WED AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE MORNING. A MODERATE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO PERHAPS 30 MPH AS DEEPER MIXING ENSUES. 06Z NAM/00Z GFS FORECASTS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE INDICATION OF RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY WED...WELL BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ..GRAMS.. 09/07/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... |
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