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AXPZ20 KNHC 061551 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON FEB 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH 09N84W TO 05N100W TO 06N110W. ITCZ AXIS 06N100W TO 07N114W TO BEYOND 07N140W. AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 103W AND 110W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ...DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM INTENSE 965 MB LOW NW OF AREA NEAR 42N145W ENTERS THE FORECAST WATERS NEAR 30N135W THEN CONTINUES SW BEYOND 25N140W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL NOTED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT TODAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ENDING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS EXTENDING 30N123W TO 20N132W EARLY TUE MORNING...AND FROM 30N116W TO 24N116W EARLY WED MORNING WHEN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. THE DEEP AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION HAS WEAKENED THE TRADE WINDS NORMALLY FOUND NEAR 10N E OF 115-120W. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW THE TRADES TO REDEVELOP BY WED. ANOTHER DEEPENING LOW PRES CROSSING NW OF THE REGION WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG SLY WINDS TO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY WED WITH SEAS OF 14-16 FT. ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC COVERING MOST OF THE AREA W OF 90W. PERIOD OF 18 SECONDS ARE NOTED AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL TRAIN WHICH IS IMPACTING THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. A NEW SWELL TRAIN IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGIONAL WATERS BY EARLY TUE. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG N WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE INCREASED TO GALE FORCE AS STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO. AN EARLIER OSCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE GALE FORCE WINDS. PEAK WINDS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-13 FT. 30 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH WED. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FROM ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN SW CARIBBEAN WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. EXPECT PERIODIC WINDS TO 20 KT IN THAT AREA. $$ GR |
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