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AXNT20 KNHC 061752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON FEB 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W TO 2N14W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1S25W 2N44W TO THE COAST PF BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF BOTH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO OVER THE BAHAMAS GIVING LOW LEVEL SUPPORT TO A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED INLAND ACROSS SRN FLORIDA TO A WEAK STATIONARY 1013 MB LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AROUND 22N85W. WHILE THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY DOES NOT CONTAIN ANY ACTIVITY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SE GULF...WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 27N E OF 87W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 30N83W ALONG 25N92W TO 26N93W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO INLAND MEXICO OVER THE CITY OF PARAISO. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 70-100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FARTHER NW TO THE COAST OF TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ADVECTING MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERCAST MULTI LAYER CLOUDINESS EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE SW...NW ...AND N CENTRAL BASIN. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY INITIALLY FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT LOOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEN IT WILL TRACK NE AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK STATIONARY 1013 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 19N87W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NEAR THIS SYSTEM DUE TO DRY SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NE ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLC BASIN S OF 30N W OF 35W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ALONG WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED W OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N25W TO 25N50W TO 25N72W...PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA E OF 65W. HOWEVER ...W OF 65W...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHINESS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY W OF 78W. FURTHERMORE...THE SRN EXTENSION OF A COLD FRONT BARELY ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N60W TO 28N74W. AS THESE TWO FEATURES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE W ATLC...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA W OF 60W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THICK AREA OF SAHARAN DUST MOVING OFF WEST AFRICA E OF 20W FROM 12N-25N. THIS PHENOMENON CAN HAPPEN AT ANY TIME OF YEAR BUT IS USUALLY MORE OFTEN DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA |
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