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AXNT20 KNHC 101744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 31.0W AT 10/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 405 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER IGOR...AND IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVING IGOR A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BY SUNDAY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE CENTER FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 31W-36W. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW JUST W OF BARBADOS NEAR 13N60W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTER FROM 16N59W TO 10N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 56W-64W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE NEXT 48 HRS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WNW AT 5 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA ALONG 8W FROM 6N-15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE AXIS TO THE AFRICAN COASTLINE. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 11N19W RESUMING NEAR 9N28W 9N40W 7N50W 10N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS PUSHED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-15N E OF 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 33W-45W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 45W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED OVER SRN TEXAS NEAR 29N98W WITH AXIS EXTENDING SE ACROSS SRN FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE SW GULF CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N93W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC. RADAR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS S FLORIDA AND ACROSS A FEW AREAS OF THE NRN GULF INCLUDING ERN TEXAS AND SE LOUISIANA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE WRN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM JAMAICA NEAR 19N77W TO 13N76W. THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENHANCED AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...AND IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 74W-82W. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 65W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. ALOFT...MAINLY ELY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN WITH NELY WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVER THE NE CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR BOTH THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF JAMAICA AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE WWD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DRIFTED S OF THE FRONT COVERING THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 61W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FLARED UP OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE SW BAHAMAS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 77W-80W ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW ATLC IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT. FARTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N44W TO 14N45W CONNECTING A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. THE FIRST IS A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N44W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NE OF THE CENTER FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 40W-44W. THE SECOND LOW CENTER IS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N45W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATED THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 34N32W. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 23N31W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON |
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