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FSUS46 KLOX 061209
QPSLOX

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 AM PST MON FEB 06 2012

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN INCHES ARE PROVIDED IN 3-HOUR
INCREMENTS UNTIL 1600 FOLLOWED BY 6-HOUR INCREMENTS UNTIL 0400.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COVER UP TO 0400 ON DAY 1 ONLY.

LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN ZERO BUT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH ARE SHOWN AS LGT.

THE DISCUSSION COVERS THE PERIOD FROM: MON FEB 06 2012 THROUGH MON FEB 13 2012.

                                    04-07  07-10  10-13  13-16  |  16-22  22-04

SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...

LSRC1:CAMBRIA                        0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0    0.1
SMRC1:SANTA MARGARITA                0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0    0.1
NIPC1:LOPEZ LAKE                     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0    0.1

SLO: PEAK 1-HR RATES: CST/VLY 0.01-0.10    FTHLS/MTNS 0.01-0.10 
                      EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN  0200-0400
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS: NO 

SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...

GETC1:GETTY BASIN                    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0    0.1
SBTC1:SANTA BARBARA POTRERO          0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0    0.1
GBRC1:GIBRALTAR DAM                  0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0    0.0
SMCC1:SAN MARCOS PASS                0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0    0.0
SBFC1:SANTA BARBARA FLOOD CONTROL    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0    0.0

SBA: PEAK 1-HR RATES: CST/VLY 0.01-0.10    FTHLS/MTNS 0.01-0.10 
                      EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN  0300-0400
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS: NO 

VENTURA COUNTY...

FGWC1:FAGAN CANYON                   0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0    0.0
HRCC1:HOPPER CANYON                  0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0    0.0
MTDC1:MATILIJA DAM                   0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0    0.0
VTUC1:VENTURA COUNTY GOVT CENTER     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0    0.0
MORC1:MOORPARK COUNTY YARD           0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0    0.0
CRXC1:CIRCLE X RANCH                 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0    0.0

VTU: PEAK 1-HR RATES: CST/VLY 0.00         FTHLS/MTNS 0.00      
                      EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN        N/A
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS: NO 

LOS ANGELES COUNTY...

WFKC1:WEST FORK HELIPORT (MT WILSON) 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0    0.0
BDDC1:BIG DALTON DAM                 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0    0.0
PCDC1:PACOIMA DAM                    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0    0.0
FLTC1:LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE           0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0    0.0
SAUC1:SAUGUS                         0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0    0.0
CQT  :LOS ANGELES DOWNTOWN (USC)     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0    0.0
MLUC1:BIG ROCK MESA                  0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.0    0.0

LAC: PEAK 1-HR RATES: CST/VLY 0.00         FTHLS/MTNS 0.00      
                      EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN        N/A
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS: NO 

DISCUSSION:

IT WILL BE DRY TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE 
COASTAL WATERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THERE 
IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE 
AREA. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT THIS STORM 
WILL DELIVER AS ALL FOUR FORECAST STORM TRACKS ARE DIFFERENT AND A 
DIFFERENCE IN THE STORM TRACK OF 20 TO 40 MILES WILL MAKE A 
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT FALLS.

RAINFALL ESTIMATES RIGHT NOW CALL FOR MOST AREAS TO RECEIVE A HALF 
TO AN INCH OF RAIN. THE NW PORTION OF SLO COUNTY...THE SANTA YNEZ 
RANGE...AND THE WESTERN COASTAL MTN SLOPES OF VTA COUNTY COULD 
RECEIVE AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN. THE ANTELOPE VLY WILL LIKELY GET A 
QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THESE AMOUNTS ARE SORT OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN 
THE ALL THE MDL TRACKS. IF THE STORM PULLS MORE TO THE WEST THERE 
WILL BE MUCH LESS RAIN. IF IT TRACKS NEARER TO SHORE THERE WILL BE 
HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AT 7000 FEET AND WILL 
FALL SLOWLY TO 5500 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING. WITH ALL THE SOUTH 
WINDS THE SNOW LEVELS COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER OVER THE COASTAL 
PEAKS THAN IN THE INTERIOR. IT LOOKS LIKE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW 
COULD FALL WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY 
EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND.

$$

ASR







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