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FXUS21 KWNC 032002
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 03 2012

SYNOPSIS: AFTER A SURFACE LOW DEPARTS THE MID-ATLANTIC, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. AN 
AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA OR PROGRESS INLAND INTO THE SOUTHWEST. BY FEBRUARY 9, A SURFACE LOW 
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A POWERFUL 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WITH A 
SUBSEQUENT TRACK NORTH INTO THE BERING SEA. 

HAZARDS

HIGH WINDS AND WAVES FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA, 
FEBRUARY 6-7.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, 
SOUTHEAST, WESTERN CORN BELT, NORTHEAST MINNESOTA, AND HAWAII.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR MONDAY FEBRUARY 06 - FRIDAY FEBRUARY 10: FOLLOWING A MAJOR WINTER STORM 
AFFECTING THE FRONT RANGE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS, TRANQUIL 
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 AS A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY UNDERCUT THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE 
BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE INLAND PROGRESS OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 
0/12Z GFS MODELS INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WHILE THE 0Z ECMWF MODEL FAVORS DRIER 
WEATHER. 



LATER DURING THIS PERIOD, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION 
OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 
OPERATIONAL 0/12Z GFS MODELS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO, WHILE THE OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF MODEL MAINTAINS HIGH PRESSURE IN 
THIS REGION. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 12Z ECMWF FROM FEBRUARY 3 HAS 
TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS-BASED MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
TRACKING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST.



PRIOR TO THIS PERIOD, A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS ALASKA 
AS AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND A RIDGE 
BUILDS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AXIS, 
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A 
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (AROUND 960-HPA) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. ON MONDAY AND 
TUESDAY, HIGH WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN 
COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA. PERSISTENT, ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN 
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA. HOWEVER, 
MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION PRECLUDES 
DESIGNATION OF A HAZARD AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT COULD 
RESULT IN FLOODING FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA.

FOR SATURDAY FEBRUARY 11 - FRIDAY FEBRUARY 17: NO SPECIFIC HAZARDS CAN BE 
DEFINED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. DURING WEEK-2, THE 
0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, 
WHILE THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS A TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. 
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REACH 
SOUTHEAST CANADA. AT THIS TIME, HOW MUCH IF ANY ARCTIC AIR ENTERS THE EASTERN 
U.S. IS UNCLEAR. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OFFSHORE 
WIND EVENT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. OCCASIONAL NORTH 
PACIFIC STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN 
PANHANDLE.



DURING THE PAST WEEK, SEVERE DROUGHT EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA 
PENINSULA. MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WHERE 
LITTLE OR NO IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT WEEK.

FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH 

$$

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