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FXUS66 KSGX 061730 AFDSGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 930 AM PST MON FEB 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WITH DRY AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE REGION. AS THIS LOW TRACK SOUTHWARD AND INTO BAJA ON WEDNESDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH MODERATE AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. THESE DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SITUATED UNDER A TRANSITORY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING AND BETWEEN TO IMPRESSIVE LOOKING UPPER LEVEL LOWS. THE FIRST OF WHICH IS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...AND WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE OTHER LOW IS NEAR 41 NORTH AND 145 WEST...AND WILL BE THE DRIVING FACT OF OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF AND DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IN THE MEANTIME THOUGH....SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SEE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDS SKIES POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHT COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY. AS THE FOCUS SHIFTS INTO TUESDAY SYSTEM...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH THE POSITION AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE STILL THE FARTHEST NORTH...FORMING THE LOW NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...BEFORE TRACKING IT SOUTHEASTWARD JUST OFF OR ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM SHOW THE POSITION OF THIS LOW FORMING FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE BIGHT...AND THEN TRACK THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BAJA COAST. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENT PLACEMENTS...IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OR EVEN EAST OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...PULLING IN SOME MUCH DRIER AIR AND PROLONGING THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVEN TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE REGION SEES ANY PRECIPITATION...MAKING FOR A MESSY AFTERNOON OR EVENING COMMUTE. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INLAND...SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...MAINLY AROUND OR LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE FLOW...THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVER DONE. ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE WINDS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHEASTERLY...WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH AND BELOW THE FAVORED CANYONS AND PASSES. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE ONLY PEAK AROUND 10 MBS BETWEEN LINDBERGH AND TONOPAH...AND AROUND 4 MBS BETWEEN LINDBERGH AND DAGGETT. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALSO LOOK RELATIVELY WEAK...30 TO 35 KNOTS AT BEST BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MBS. THEREFORE...THINK THAT SOME ADVISORY TYPE WINDS MAYBE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND POTENTIALLY DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. EVEN GIVEN THE ISSUES WITH TIMES...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THINGS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAILING. && .AVIATION... 061625Z...BKN-OVC CLDS FL150-200 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 06/21Z...STRATUS BLO 1000 FT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATER AND MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST. BY AROUND 07/00Z...THE STRATUS WILL BE OVER THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS MAY MAKE IT TO COASTAL AIRPORTS OF SAN/CRQ/SNA AFTER 07/00Z THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL IFR/MVFR CIGS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. ACCOMPANYING THE STRATUS...VIS WILL BE REDUCED TO AROUND 6SM WITH LOCALLY LOWER VIS OF 3-5SM. AFTER 07/15Z TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE LOW STRATUS WILL RETREAT TO THE COAST WITH OVC LAYERS AOA FL100 REMAINING. && .MARINE... TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL BE OPPOSING THE BUILDING WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL. VERY ROUGH TO HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS MAY WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THAT TIME. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH ORANGE COUNTY AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A BUILDING WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL. && .FIRE WEATHER... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK...AS OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THESE DAYS...AND HUMIDITIES WILL FALL. SOME OF THE FAVORED SPOTS COULD SEE WIND GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. IF MEANINGFUL RAIN DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL SURFACE AGAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...PALMER AVIATION/MARINE...MOKER |
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