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FXUS66 KLOX 102110 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 210 PM PDT FRI SEP 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BUT STAYING BELOW NORMAL. THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD SLOWLY REFORM INTO NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)... TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REBOUND FROM THE DOWNRIGHT CHILLY CONDITIONS FELT EARLIER THIS WEEK...AS THE GUILTY TROUGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WEAKEN. MOST AREAS SEEING 3-8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AS A RESULT. ANOTHER 2-5 DEGREE WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE EDGE OF A RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY BUILDS INTO CALIFORNIA...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS STAYING A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE STANDS PAT. THE MARINE INVERSION REMAINS TATTERED FROM THE COLD AIR EARLIER THIS WEEK...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY REFORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE...ONSHORE GRADS LOOK TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH ALL ADDS UP TO A GREATER MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY STILL BE RAGGED IN COVERAGE... EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BECOME LESS PATCHY IN COVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND BLANKET MOST COASTAL AREAS. DENSE FOG WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN NEAR THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. ALONG WITH THE STILL COOL OCEAN TEMPERATURES...COASTAL AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TYPICAL ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED SAT THROUGH MON. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS ON TUE...THEN SLOWLY PUSHING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW SHOULD NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT OUR AREA...IT SHOULD PUSH THE RIDGE TRYING TO ASSERT ITSELF FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS FURTHER STRENGTHEN ONSHORE GRADS AND THE MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE. LOWERED TEMPERATURES SOME ON TUE AND WED AS A RESULT. BY THU AND FRI AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD AND FLATTENS OUT SOME...HEIGHTS ACTUALLY LOOK TO RISE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOME...WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME WARMING. && .AVIATION...10/1800Z. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL PERSIST WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AFTER 11/20Z WHILE LIGHT MID LEVEL EAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH AFTER 11/12Z. MARINE LAYER TOP WAS AROUND 006 THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 004 FEET SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME WEAK ONSHORE BY 10/20-11/03Z AND AFTER 11/20Z. KLAX...IT IS LIKELY LOW LEVEL CIGS WILL DEVELOP. A CHANCE AROUND 008 BY 11/10Z. IT IS LIKELY CURRENT SKY/VSBY WILL EXIST AFTER 11/19Z. KBUR...IT IS VERY LIKELY CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100% VERY LIKELY - 80-95% LIKELY - 60-80% CHANCE - 30-60% VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...KITTELL AVIATION...30 SYNOPSIS...HOFFER WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES |
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