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FXUS66 KLOX 061800 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 1000 AM PST MON FEB 6 2012 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME NORTHEAST WINDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN BY LATE WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)... FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TODAY...WITH ADVANCING CLOUDS AND COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR LAST STAND THIS MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND CHOICE VALLEY SPOTS. FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING STORM LOOKS GOOD AS WELL. CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE FINE TUNING THE RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS FORECASTS...AND WHETHER OR NOT THE INTERIOR SLO/SBA VALLEYS WILL SEE WARNING LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS TONIGHT. *FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION* ALL EYES ON THE TUESDAY STORM. SADLY THERE IS NO CONSENSUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CLOSER TO SHORE TRACK WHILE THE GEM AND THE EC TRACK THE STORM FURTHER TO THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCE IN TRACKS DOES NOT APPLY TO THE QUESTION OF IF ITS GOING TO RAIN ONLY TO HOW MUCH RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL START TO RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL COAST SOMETIME BEFORE DAWN TUESDAY AND THEN WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MOVED POPS UP TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE ANTELOPE VLY WHICH STILL HAS A CHANCE OF REMAINING ON THE DRY SIDE ESP IF THE STORM TAKES A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN THERE WILL A GOOD SHOT OF SOUTH WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. ISSUED HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR ALL THE MTNS AND INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO AND SBA COUNTY. STARTING AT 300 AM TUE FOR THE SLO/SBA AREA AND 600 AM FOR THE VTA/LA MTNS DUE TO THE WEST TRACK OF THE STORM CENTER ONLY THE NW PORTION OF THE L.A. MTNS WILL BE AFFECTED. WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF SLO SBA AND VTA COUNTIES AND EXPECT THE DAY SHIFT WILL ISSUE THESE SHORTER FUSE PRODUCTS THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL ESTIMATES RIGHT NOW CALL FOR MOST AREAS TO RECEIVE A HALF TO AN INCH OF RAIN. THE NW PORTION OF SLO COUNTY...THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AND THE WESTERN COASTAL MTN SLOPES OF VTA COUNTY COULD RECEIVE AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN. THE ANTELOPE VLY WILL LIKELY GET A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THESE AMOUNTS ARE SORT OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL THE MDL TRACKS. IF THE STORM PULLS MORE TO THE WEST THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS RAIN. IF IT TRACKS NEARER TO SHORE THERE WILL BE HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AT 7000 FEET AND WILL FALL SLOWLY TO 5500 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING. WITH ALL THE SOUTH WINDS THE SNOW LEVELS COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER OVER THE COASTAL PEAKS THAN IN THE INTERIOR. IT LOOKS LIKE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE EC/GEM HAVE BEEN THE GO TO MDLS THIS WINTER AND SHADED THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO THESE MDLS MORE WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD KEEP THE COLDER MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE TSTM THREAT OFF TO THE WEST OF US. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALL MDLS FORM A CLOSED LOW AND PUSH IT DOWN THE COAST. THIS TRACK WILL PULL THE RAIN AWAY FROM THE SLO AND SBA COUNTY AND MOVE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN TO L.A. COUNTY WHERE WRAP AROUND FLOW WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY NOON. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ACROSS THE COAST AND VLYS WILL HOVER AROUND 60 RATHER TYPICAL FOR A FEBRUARY RAIN SYSTEM. STILL COOL WEDNESDAY BUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING HGTS LOOK FOR ABOUT 6 DEGREES OF WARMING. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)... EC AND GFS AGREE THAT A LARGE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THU AND FRI WITH A CLEARING...DRYING...AND WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH WIND EACH MORNING TO WARRANT A LOW GRADE ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF L.A. COUNTY AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF VTA COUNTY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND A COOLING TREND WILL ENSUE ALONG WITH A DROP OFF IN WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. && .AVIATION...06/1800Z. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOWERING CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z TUESDAY BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD BEGIN UP TO 2 HRS EARLIER. CIG MAY LOWER TO MVFR +/- 2 HOURS FROM TAF TIMES OF 09Z-13Z. SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z-13Z FOR THE COAST AND VALLEY SITES...BUT THE TIMING COULD DIFFER +/- 2 HOURS FROM TAF TIMES. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KPMD AND KWJF WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z. KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 12Z TUE MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FROM 12Z-18Z...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS...RAIN AND 10 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 12Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS AND/OR VSBY WILL DROP BELOW MVFR BETWEEN 15Z-21Z. KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 12Z TUE MORNING. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12Z-18Z. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX). GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX). SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...KITTELL/RORKE AVIATION...SMITH SYNOPSIS...ASR WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
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FXUS66 KLOX 061800
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1000 AM PST MON FEB 6 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME NORTHEAST 
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING RAIN AND 
GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN BY 
LATE WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SOME 
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TODAY...WITH ADVANCING CLOUDS AND COOLER 
THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BREEZY 
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR LAST STAND THIS MORNING OVER THE 
MOUNTAINS AND CHOICE VALLEY SPOTS. FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING STORM 
LOOKS GOOD AS WELL. CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE FINE TUNING THE 
RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS FORECASTS...AND WHETHER OR NOT THE INTERIOR 
SLO/SBA VALLEYS WILL SEE WARNING LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS TONIGHT.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ALL EYES ON THE TUESDAY STORM. SADLY THERE IS NO CONSENSUS ON THE 
EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 
CLOSER TO SHORE TRACK WHILE THE GEM AND THE EC TRACK THE STORM 
FURTHER TO THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCE IN TRACKS DOES NOT APPLY TO THE 
QUESTION OF IF ITS GOING TO RAIN ONLY TO HOW MUCH RAIN. IT LOOKS 
LIKE IT WILL START TO RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL COAST SOMETIME BEFORE 
DAWN TUESDAY AND THEN WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. 
MOVED POPS UP TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT 
FOR THE ANTELOPE VLY WHICH STILL HAS A CHANCE OF REMAINING ON THE 
DRY SIDE ESP IF THE STORM TAKES A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN THERE WILL A GOOD SHOT OF SOUTH WINDS WITH 
THIS SYSTEM. ISSUED HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR ALL THE MTNS AND INTERIOR 
VLYS OF SLO AND SBA COUNTY. STARTING AT 300 AM TUE FOR THE SLO/SBA 
AREA AND 600 AM FOR THE VTA/LA MTNS DUE TO THE WEST TRACK OF THE 
STORM CENTER ONLY THE NW PORTION OF THE L.A. MTNS WILL BE AFFECTED. 
WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF SLO 
SBA AND VTA COUNTIES AND EXPECT THE DAY SHIFT WILL ISSUE THESE 
SHORTER FUSE PRODUCTS THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL ESTIMATES RIGHT NOW CALL FOR MOST AREAS TO RECEIVE A HALF 
TO AN INCH OF RAIN. THE NW PORTION OF SLO COUNTY...THE SANTA YNEZ 
RANGE...AND THE WESTERN COASTAL MTN SLOPES OF VTA COUNTY COULD 
RECEIVE AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN. THE ANTELOPE VLY WILL LIKELY GET A 
QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THESE AMOUNTS ARE SORT OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN 
ALL THE MDL TRACKS. IF THE STORM PULLS MORE TO THE WEST THERE WILL 
BE MUCH LESS RAIN. IF IT TRACKS NEARER TO SHORE THERE WILL BE HIGHER 
RAIN TOTALS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AT 7000 FEET AND WILL FALL 
SLOWLY TO 5500 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING. WITH ALL THE SOUTH WINDS THE 
SNOW LEVELS COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER OVER THE COASTAL PEAKS 
THAN IN THE INTERIOR. IT LOOKS LIKE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL 
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

THE EC/GEM HAVE BEEN THE GO TO MDLS THIS WINTER AND SHADED THE TRACK 
OF THE LOW TO THESE MDLS MORE WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD KEEP THE 
COLDER MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE TSTM THREAT 
OFF TO THE WEST OF US.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALL MDLS FORM A CLOSED LOW AND PUSH IT 
DOWN THE COAST. THIS TRACK WILL PULL THE RAIN AWAY FROM THE SLO AND 
SBA COUNTY AND MOVE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN TO L.A. COUNTY WHERE WRAP 
AROUND FLOW WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING. MOST SHOWER 
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY NOON.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ACROSS THE COAST AND VLYS WILL HOVER AROUND 60 
RATHER TYPICAL FOR A FEBRUARY RAIN SYSTEM. STILL COOL WEDNESDAY BUT 
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING HGTS LOOK FOR ABOUT 6 DEGREES OF 
WARMING.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
EC AND GFS AGREE THAT A LARGE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THU AND 
FRI WITH A CLEARING...DRYING...AND WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS WILL 
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH WIND EACH 
MORNING TO WARRANT A LOW GRADE ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF 
L.A. COUNTY AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF VTA COUNTY.

THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND A COOLING TREND WILL 
ENSUE ALONG WITH A DROP OFF IN WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL 
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...06/1800Z.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOWERING CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND 
RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION...EXPECT 
MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z TUESDAY BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE 
THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD BEGIN UP TO 2 HRS EARLIER. CIG MAY LOWER TO 
MVFR +/- 2 HOURS FROM TAF TIMES OF 09Z-13Z. 

SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z-13Z FOR THE COAST AND VALLEY SITES...BUT THE 
TIMING COULD DIFFER +/- 2 HOURS FROM TAF TIMES. THERE IS A 30 
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KPMD AND KWJF WITH LIGHT 
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z. 

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 12Z TUE MORNING. MODERATE 
CONFIDENCE FROM 12Z-18Z...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR 
CONDITIONS...RAIN AND 10 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY 
AS 12Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS AND/OR VSBY WILL DROP 
BELOW MVFR BETWEEN 15Z-21Z. 

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 12Z TUE MORNING. THERE IS A 30 
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12Z-18Z.  

 
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/RORKE
AVIATION...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES