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FXUS66 KLOX 060001 CCA AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 401 PM PST MON JAN 5 2009 ...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION... .SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...DYING COLD FRONT DRAGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BEING REPORTED BUT LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWING UP IN THE GAUGES. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO BRING ABOUT AN INCREASE IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SRN SBA COUNTY. MAY EVEN GET SOME GUSTY WINDS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEYS OF LA/VTU COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THEM IN THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. WINDS SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY MORNING BUT ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY TO PRODUCE SOME NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. IN LA COUNTY THE STRONGEST WINDS AS USUAL WILL BE THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR. BEHIND THE FRONT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT UNDER THE NORTHERLY FLOW. EXCEPTIONS TO THIS INCLUDE THE GRAPEVINE AREA WHERE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, AND ERN LA COUNTY WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR A POSSIBLE EDDY CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS FELT THAT THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AS TO NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT LOCALLY. THUS, SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING WED AFTERNOON. ON THU, MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE GRADIENTS TO TURN ONSHORE, FORCING AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND DAYTIME HIGHS TO FALL A FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS. MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION BY AFTERNOON BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...THE LAST COUPLE GFS RUNS THREW A LITTLE WRENCH INTO OUR PLANS FOR A BIG WARMUP LATE IN THE WEEK, INSTEAD CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW FROM THE TROF MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST AND BRINGING IN A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH IT. THIS SOLUTION WAS THE ONLY ONE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT DID THIS, AND THE ECMWF IS ALSO NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS. HOWEVER, THE EC DID SHOW THE TROF HANGING BACK WEST FARTHER THAN EARLIER RUNS AND FOR NOW HAVE STRUCK A COMPROMISE BY LOWERING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON FRI AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS A WARM AND WINDY FORECAST SAT-MON, THE LATTER DAY OR TWO OF WHICH ARE STILL INDICATED BY EVEN THE NEWER GFS RUNS. IT'S JUST THE FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME THAT IS IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT. IT STILL APPEARS A DECENT SANTA ANA WIND EVENT WILL DEVELOP, BUT THE STRENGTH AND TIMING, AS WELL AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM UP IS STILL UNCERTAIN. ALL MODELS STILL POINT TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA BY NEXT MONDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD 80+ READINGS POSSIBLE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. && .AVIATION...06/0000Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND OVER LOS ANGELES COUNTY TERMINALS. LOW-WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE ISSUES WILL DEVELOP OVER KSBA...KBUR...AND KVNY THROUGH 12Z. KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT 6000 FOOT CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z. AFTER 05Z...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO 18Z TUESDAY. KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A 6000 FOOT CEILING MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z. BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z...WEAK TO MODERATE TURBULENCE WILL DEVELOP WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ISSUES. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...WOFFORD/MEIER AVIATION...HALL WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
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FXUS66 KLOX 060001 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
401 PM PST MON JAN 5 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...DYING COLD FRONT DRAGGING THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BEING REPORTED BUT 
LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWING UP IN THE GAUGES. MAIN IMPACT 
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO BRING ABOUT AN INCREASE IN NORTH TO 
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH ADVISORY 
LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SRN SBA COUNTY. MAY EVEN 
GET SOME GUSTY WINDS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEYS OF LA/VTU COUNTIES 
LATER TONIGHT BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THEM IN THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. 
WINDS SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY MORNING BUT ENOUGH OF A 
GRADIENT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY TO PRODUCE SOME NORTHERLY 
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. IN LA COUNTY 
THE STRONGEST WINDS AS USUAL WILL BE THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 
CORRIDOR. 

BEHIND THE FRONT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT UNDER THE NORTHERLY FLOW. 
EXCEPTIONS TO THIS INCLUDE THE GRAPEVINE AREA WHERE UPSLOPE 
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, AND 
ERN LA COUNTY WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR 
A POSSIBLE EDDY CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, BUT AT THIS TIME 
IT IS FELT THAT THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH IT 
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AS TO NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT LOCALLY. THUS, SKIES 
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL 
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, 
RESULTING IN SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING WED AFTERNOON. 

ON THU, MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING 
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE GRADIENTS TO TURN ONSHORE, 
FORCING AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND DAYTIME HIGHS TO FALL A 
FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS. MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE 
NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION BY AFTERNOON BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...THE LAST COUPLE GFS RUNS THREW A LITTLE 
WRENCH INTO OUR PLANS FOR A BIG WARMUP LATE IN THE WEEK, INSTEAD 
CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW FROM THE TROF MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST AND 
BRINGING IN A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH IT. THIS SOLUTION WAS THE ONLY 
ONE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT DID THIS, AND THE ECMWF IS ALSO NOT 
IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS. HOWEVER, THE EC DID SHOW THE TROF HANGING 
BACK WEST FARTHER THAN EARLIER RUNS AND FOR NOW HAVE STRUCK A 
COMPROMISE BY LOWERING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON FRI AS THE TROF MOVES 
THROUGH. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS A WARM AND WINDY 
FORECAST SAT-MON, THE LATTER DAY OR TWO OF WHICH ARE STILL INDICATED 
BY EVEN THE NEWER GFS RUNS. IT'S JUST THE FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME THAT IS 
IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT. IT STILL APPEARS A DECENT SANTA ANA WIND 
EVENT WILL DEVELOP, BUT THE STRENGTH AND TIMING, AS WELL AS THE 
ASSOCIATED WARM UP IS STILL UNCERTAIN. ALL MODELS STILL POINT TO 
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA BY NEXT MONDAY, WITH 
WIDESPREAD 80+ READINGS POSSIBLE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0000Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE 
PERIOD...WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT 
TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND OVER LOS ANGELES COUNTY 
TERMINALS. LOW-WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE ISSUES WILL DEVELOP OVER 
KSBA...KBUR...AND KVNY THROUGH 12Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. 
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT 6000 FOOT CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP 
BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z. AFTER 05Z...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT 
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO 18Z TUESDAY.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A 30 PERCENT 
CHANCE THAT A 6000 FOOT CEILING MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z. 
BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z...WEAK TO MODERATE TURBULENCE WILL DEVELOP WITH 
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ISSUES. 


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...WOFFORD/MEIER
AVIATION...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES