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ACUS11 KWNS 042246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042246 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-050015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN LA...FAR SERN MS...FAR SWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 042246Z - 050015Z

A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS
FAR SERN LA...FAR SERN MS...AND FAR SWRN AL...WITH A WEAKENING TREND
EXPECTED AFTER 01Z. A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTINUES MOVING EWD AROUND 20 KT...
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM EAST OF THE HATTIESBURG MS AREA SWD TOWARD
THE EAST END OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO NEAR GRAND ISLE LA. LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AMIDST A WEAKLY
BUOYANT -- MLCAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J PER KG -- AND ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
TROPOSPHERE -- PW VALUES OF 180 TO 190 PERCENT OF NORMAL PER BLENDED
AMSU/SSMI DATA -- SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ALONG
THE CNTRL GULF COAST. ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PER
AREA VWP DATA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTAINING SOME CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OWING TO WATER LOADING
PROCESSES AND WEAK/BROAD...LINE-EMBEDDED MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS.
HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW PER MOBILE VWP DATA...THE LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE ABSENCE OF GREATER
BUOYANCY...AND THE ABSENCE OF A MORE ORGANIZED COLD POOL WILL
GREATLY MINIMIZE ANY THREAT FOR SVR WIND GUSTS. AFTER
01Z...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A REDUCTION IN
THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS.

..COHEN.. 02/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   30418780 30158816 29668875 29068918 29298980 30028962
            30708926 31208880 31318826 31148779 30758771 30418780