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ACUS01 KWNS 061953 SWODY1 SPC AC 061951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CST MON FEB 06 2012 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON... A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS NOW CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE EN ROUTE TO THE S CENTRAL TX. ASCENT AND WEAK BUOYANCY ROOTED NEAR OR ABOVE THE 700 MB PRESSURE LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ...CENTRAL/S FL THIS AFTERNOON... A MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT ALONG AND S OF A SLOW-MOVING SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL. THE MOST VIGOROUS LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR REMAINED JUST OFF THE E CENTRAL FL COAST...BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A DECREASE IN THE ALREADY MARGINAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ...SW CO THIS AFTERNOON... CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SW CO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND MINIMAL BUOYANCY SUGGEST THAT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE UNLIKELY WITH THIS CONVECTION. ..THOMPSON.. 02/06/2012 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012/ ...FL PENINSULA... LATE MORNING COMPOSITE SATELLITE/SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE/INVERTED TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE FL STRAITS VICINITY. THIS AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE...AND A RESIDUAL NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GULF NEWD INTO THE NRN PART OF THE FL PENINSULA...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. POCKETS OF HEATING WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS /PW 1.75 INCHES PER 12Z S FL RAOBS/ WILL YIELD WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION /UPWARDS OF 250-1000 J/KG MLCAPE/--PERHAPS ENOUGH TO YIELD A STRONG WIND GUST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...NEGATING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS AND THE INCLUSION OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ...RIO GRANDE VALLEY... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER TX/NRN MEXICO WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN UPSTREAM CLOSED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. MEAGER INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG MUCAPE /BASED NEAR 600 MB/ MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR A FEW TSTMS THIS AFTN. |
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