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FXUS61 KOKX 072104 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 504 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THEN DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRES EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST. COLD FRONT SHOULD LIE JUST WEST OF THE FCST AREA BY DAYBREAK WED. CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONFINING ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING TO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MUCH WARMER NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND IN THE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE AND AROUND 70 IN/AROUND NYC. SINCE DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...WILL ONLY LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ENTERING WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO A RESIDUAL SE SWELL AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY WED. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND...WITH HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. WILL FOLLOW AS SUCH...BUT WILL FOLLOW THE WEAKENING TREND AND CARRY LOW-END CHANCE POPS...ENDING TOWARDS AFTERNOON. SKIES FAIRLY QUICKLY CLEAR OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WELL... RESULTING IN A WINDY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 25+ MPH GUSTS. THIS WESTERLY FLOW HAS NO REAL SURGE OF COLDER ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND WILL FOLLOW THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS WED...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. DRY WED NIGHT AS THE REGION FINDS ITSELF IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA... PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN NY STATE ON THU. A WEAK TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON THU...SO WILL CAP AT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WITH WINDS NOW SHIFTING TO MORE OF A NW FLOW...COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR THU AND FRI. DRY WX EXPECTED THU NIGHT AND FRI. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD PRODUCE A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY DURING THE PERIOD. CLOUDS THEN INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM FRONT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA MOST LIKELY DURING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE JUST ENOUGH CAPE AND LIFT TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR. STRENGTHENING S/SW FLOW THIS AFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER OHIO VALLEY. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT DEVELOPING BY 20Z AND LASTING THROUGH THE LATE AFT. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BACK AROUND TO 190-200...ELSEWHERE 220-230. LLWS FORECAST AFTER 06Z WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ABOVE DEVELOPING INVERSION. AFTER 13Z...MIXING ENSUES WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DOWN TO SFC AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO 240-260 WED MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE NYC TERMINALS...PRECEDED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROF IN THE MORNING. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOP WITH ONSET OF AMBROSE JET. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: 190-200 WIND DIRECTION COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD END AN HOUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD END AN HOUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD END AN HOUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WED AFT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS. WED NIGHT...VFR. THU...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA POSSIBLE. GUSTY NW WINDS. THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VFR. SUN...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS. && .MARINE... WITH A TIGHTENING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 6-8 FT. IN ADDITION...WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON WED...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 25 KT GUSTS ON ALL WATERS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCA FOR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH WED...AND WILL HOIST SCA FOR NY HARBOR/LI SOUND/BAYS FOR WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA WED EVENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER TROUGH ON THU...WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .FIRE WEATHER... EXPECT OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER MIN RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION ON WED. ALTHOUGH WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH 25-30 MPH GUSTS...MIN RH VALUES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 35-40 PERCENT. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON WED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH THE APPROACHING NEW MOON ON WEDNESDAY...TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW AND HIGH. TIDAL DEPARTURES BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SE SWELLS...TIDES MAY APPROACH AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY TOUCH MINOR FLOOD BENCHMARKS IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND NY HARBOR DURING THIS EVENINGS AND WED EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WILL ADDRESS THIS IN A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOW WATER PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF LOW TIDE. HOWEVER...NEGATIVE ANOMALIES SEEM SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR HIGH WATER TO NOT BE A CONCERN ON THU AT THIS TIME. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$
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FXUS61 KOKX 072104
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
504 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT THEN DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST. COLD FRONT SHOULD LIE JUST WEST OF THE FCST
AREA BY DAYBREAK WED.

CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONFINING ANY
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MUCH WARMER NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND IN THE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
MOST ELSEWHERE AND AROUND 70 IN/AROUND NYC.

SINCE DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...WILL
ONLY LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ENTERING WESTERN ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING DUE TO A RESIDUAL SE SWELL AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY WED. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND...WITH
HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. WILL FOLLOW AS
SUCH...BUT WILL FOLLOW THE WEAKENING TREND AND CARRY LOW-END
CHANCE POPS...ENDING TOWARDS AFTERNOON. SKIES FAIRLY QUICKLY CLEAR
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WELL...
RESULTING IN A WINDY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 25+ MPH
GUSTS. THIS WESTERLY FLOW HAS NO REAL SURGE OF COLDER ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...AND WILL FOLLOW THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS
WED...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

DRY WED NIGHT AS THE REGION FINDS ITSELF IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRES CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...
PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN NY STATE ON THU. A WEAK TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES ON THU...SO WILL CAP AT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH WINDS NOW SHIFTING TO MORE OF A NW FLOW...COOLER AND MORE
SEASONAL AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR THU
AND FRI. DRY WX EXPECTED THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD PRODUCE A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY DURING THE PERIOD. CLOUDS THEN INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM FRONT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA MOST LIKELY
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER
NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. WILL
HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE JUST
ENOUGH CAPE AND LIFT TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. STRENGTHENING S/SW FLOW THIS AFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT OVER OHIO VALLEY. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT DEVELOPING BY 20Z
AND LASTING THROUGH THE LATE AFT. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BACK
AROUND TO 190-200...ELSEWHERE 220-230.

LLWS FORECAST AFTER 06Z WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ABOVE
DEVELOPING INVERSION. AFTER 13Z...MIXING ENSUES WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT DOWN TO SFC AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO 240-260 WED MORNING. 

THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM LATE WED
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DUE TO
THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS
AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT THE NYC TERMINALS...PRECEDED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROF IN
THE MORNING.


     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF HIGHER GUSTS
DEVELOP WITH ONSET OF AMBROSE JET.


KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: 190-200 WIND DIRECTION COULD BE AN HOUR OR
TWO EARLIER.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD END AN HOUR EARLIER THAN
FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD END AN HOUR EARLIER THAN
FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD END AN HOUR EARLIER THAN
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED AFT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
WED NIGHT...VFR. 
THU...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA POSSIBLE. GUSTY NW
WINDS. 
THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VFR. 
SUN...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A TIGHTENING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 6-8 FT. IN ADDITION...WITH PASSAGE OF COLD
FRONT ON WED...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 25 KT
GUSTS ON ALL WATERS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCA FOR OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH WED...AND WILL HOIST SCA FOR NY HARBOR/LI SOUND/BAYS FOR
WED AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA WED EVENING. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER TROUGH ON THU...WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA
CRITERIA ON ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SCA CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI
AFTERNOON.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH SATURDAY. NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH THROUGH THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER MIN RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION ON WED. ALTHOUGH WESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH 25-30 MPH GUSTS...MIN RH VALUES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 35-40 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE APPROACHING NEW MOON ON WEDNESDAY...TIDES ARE 
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW AND HIGH. TIDAL DEPARTURES BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 1/2 
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SE
SWELLS...TIDES MAY APPROACH AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY TOUCH MINOR FLOOD 
BENCHMARKS IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND NY 
HARBOR DURING THIS EVENINGS AND WED EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WILL 
ADDRESS THIS IN A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENING. 

ADDITIONALLY WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WED NIGHT INTO 
THU...LOW WATER PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF LOW TIDE. 
HOWEVER...NEGATIVE ANOMALIES SEEM SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR HIGH WATER 
TO NOT BE A CONCERN ON THU AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR 
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$