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FXUS61 KOKX 061723 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1223 PM EST MON FEB 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NOON UPDATE...TEMPS ON TRACK WITH MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH AND LOWER 40S NORTH INCLUDING CONNECTICUT UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS BROAD HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. HIGH AROUND 50 F OR 10 F ABOVE CLIMO. WSW SFC WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH SUNSET. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE TNGT SHOULD KEEP THE LLVLS MIXED AT LEAST A LITTLE SO DRASTIC RADIATIONAL COOLING IS NOT EXPECTED... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTS. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL CANADA REACHES THE CWA ON TUE AFTN. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW CAN BE EXPECTED. SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT WITH H85 AT 20-35KT. MAINTAINED A DRY FCST WITH PW/S AROUND 0.3 INCHES. REMAINING MILD AS MID LVL TEMPS DON/T COOL TIL TUESDAY EVE. WEAK SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. 12Z NAM APPEARS FAST WITH THIS WAVE...BUT REGARDLESS AT APPEARS THAT AN AFTERNOON VERY LIGHT PCPN EVENT IS POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION ARE MARGINAL FOR THIS TO FALL AS SNOW...BUT ALOFT IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. WILL PROBABLY GO WITH CHANCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES DEPENDING ON COLLABORATION AT 330 PM. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OFF NEAR 40. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY PCPN CHANCES TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL POTENT H5 SHORTWAVES. 00Z/06 ECMWF HAS A DEEPER AND MORE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH...AND SHORTWAVES ARE FARTHER SOUTH AS COMPARED WITH THE 00Z/06 OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH HAS A FLATTER UPPER TROUGH. GFS THEN BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE RIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ECMWF INDICATES SFC LOW FORMING EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...BUT THEN TRACKS AWAY FROM THE COAST AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST. THE GFS INDICATES SIMILAR CYCLOGENESIS...BUT IT OCCURS FARTHER OFFSHORE. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL CARRY A "HIDDEN" SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... BUT IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT...COULD HAVE MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW SPREADING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WILL FAVOR THE COLDER TREND COMPARED TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND LOW TO MID 30S TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...THEN MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS INTO THE LOWER TEENS. SOME GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT MAY BE MORE SPORADIC THAN OCCASIONAL. WILL COVER THIS WITH A TEMPO GROUP. GUSTS WILL BE KEPT IN A PREVAILING GROUP WHERE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE OCCASIONAL. GUSTS GO AWAY AFTER 22-23Z. WINDS FALL BELOW 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH NW WINDS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SUB VFR POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA IN PLACE FOR GUSTY WSW WINDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING (GUST 27 KT AT 44025 AND 25 KT AT 44039 AS OF 16Z). THE SCA CONTINUES TONIGHT. SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGH ON THE OCEAN COMPARED TO WAVEWATCH...SO THEY ARE BUMPED UP A FT IN THE FCST. WINDS DIMINISH TUE...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE ERN OCEAN IN THE MRNG. TOO MARGINAL THOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA ATTM. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY AFTN. THE LATEST DATA INDICATES WINDS WILL BE JUST BLW SCA LVLS...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE SO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST ARE POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH. SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE ALL WATERS COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER IS FCST THRU TUE. CHC OF VERY LIGHT PCPN ON WED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345- 350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JST NEAR TERM...JST SHORT TERM...JST LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...BC MARINE...JMC/JST HYDROLOGY...JST
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FXUS61 KOKX 061723
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1223 PM EST MON FEB 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES COULD IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON UPDATE...TEMPS ON TRACK WITH MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH AND LOWER
40S NORTH INCLUDING CONNECTICUT UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS BROAD HIGH
PRES REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. HIGH AROUND 50 F OR 10 F
ABOVE CLIMO.

WSW SFC WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE TNGT SHOULD KEEP THE LLVLS MIXED AT LEAST
A LITTLE SO DRASTIC RADIATIONAL COOLING IS NOT EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTS. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL
CANADA REACHES THE CWA ON TUE AFTN. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW CAN BE
EXPECTED. SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT WITH H85 AT 20-35KT.
MAINTAINED A DRY FCST WITH PW/S AROUND 0.3 INCHES. REMAINING MILD
AS MID LVL TEMPS DON/T COOL TIL TUESDAY EVE.

WEAK SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. 12Z
NAM APPEARS FAST WITH THIS WAVE...BUT REGARDLESS AT APPEARS THAT
AN AFTERNOON VERY LIGHT PCPN EVENT IS POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION ARE MARGINAL FOR THIS TO FALL
AS SNOW...BUT ALOFT IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. WILL PROBABLY
GO WITH CHANCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES DEPENDING ON COLLABORATION
AT 330 PM.


HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OFF NEAR 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 
HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ANY PCPN CHANCES TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS. 

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY 
NIGHT...BUT THEN DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH 
FOLLOWS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL POTENT H5 SHORTWAVES. 
00Z/06 ECMWF HAS A DEEPER AND MORE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH...AND 
SHORTWAVES ARE FARTHER SOUTH AS COMPARED WITH THE 00Z/06 OPERATIONAL 
GFS...WHICH HAS A FLATTER UPPER TROUGH. GFS THEN BRINGS THE 
SHORTWAVE RIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO  
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ECMWF INDICATES SFC LOW FORMING EAST OF 
CAPE HATTERAS...BUT THEN TRACKS AWAY FROM THE COAST AS HIGH PRES 
BUILDS EAST. THE GFS INDICATES SIMILAR CYCLOGENESIS...BUT IT OCCURS 
FARTHER OFFSHORE. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL CARRY A 
"HIDDEN" SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... 
BUT IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT...COULD HAVE MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW 
SPREADING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WILL FAVOR THE 
COLDER TREND COMPARED TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS OVER THE 
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN 
PORTIONS AND LOW TO MID 30S TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...THEN MAYBE A 
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL DRIFT
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING. 

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS INTO THE LOWER
TEENS. SOME GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
IT MAY BE MORE SPORADIC THAN OCCASIONAL. WILL COVER THIS WITH A
TEMPO GROUP. GUSTS WILL BE KEPT IN A PREVAILING GROUP WHERE GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE OCCASIONAL. GUSTS GO AWAY AFTER 22-23Z.

WINDS FALL BELOW 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. 

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. 

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH NW WINDS. 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SUB VFR POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. 
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN PLACE FOR GUSTY WSW WINDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING (GUST 27 KT
AT 44025 AND 25 KT AT 44039 AS OF 16Z). THE SCA CONTINUES TONIGHT.
SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGH ON THE OCEAN COMPARED TO
WAVEWATCH...SO THEY ARE BUMPED UP A FT IN THE FCST. WINDS DIMINISH
TUE...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE ERN OCEAN IN THE MRNG. TOO
MARGINAL THOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA ATTM. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES
TUESDAY AFTN. THE LATEST DATA INDICATES WINDS WILL BE JUST BLW SCA
LVLS...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE SO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST ARE
POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN INCREASES ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
ALL WATERS COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FCST THRU TUE. CHC OF VERY LIGHT PCPN ON WED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JST
NEAR TERM...JST
SHORT TERM...JST
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/JST
HYDROLOGY...JST